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Project #4345

A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithm for Distribution System Demand Estimation

$171,075
Completed
Principal Investigator
Dominic
Boccelli
Research Manager
Jian Zhang, PE, Ph.D.
Contractor
University of Cincinnati
Water Demand & Forecasting
Final Report

Abstract

The purpose of this project was to develop a distribution system demand estimation algorithm that provides the flexibility to incorporate potential spatial correlation and provide a trade-off between representing the general dynamics and specific accuracy of the underlying hydraulics. The research focused on developing a Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation algorithm, which showed promise in a previous study, and has been shown to be successful in recreating the permeability field within a groundwater transport problem.