Probability Management for Water Finance and Resource Managers


Water resource and finance decisions always involve some level of uncertainty. This webcast presented the findings of Probability Management for Water Finance and Resource Managers (4742). This practical approach offers improved ways to quantify and communicate uncertainty. Webcast attendees will learn:


  • Career enhancing ways to stare uncertainty in the face, and live to tell about it.
  • How open source tools of probability management can used to depict uncertain water demand and revenues, an understanding that is required to plan investments in water infrastructure
  • How proper accounting for possibility can empower decision makers
  • Ways water professionals can communicate uncertainty to improve decision making
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    p>Tom Chesnutt introduced the basic principles and tools of probability management as a new discipline that provides the mean for calculating uncertainty. These have been formalized into a cross-industry cross-platform standard (SIPmath™ v2 standards, established by Michael Hollis spoke on long-term water demand uncertainty and common problems within water utilities when attempting to confront uncertainty. Eric Akiyoshi discussed the importance of uncertainty in water infrastructure decisions and specifically to probability management embedded in land use-based demand forecasts to inform distribution system infrastructure investment timing. Shayne Kavanagh spoke to applications of probability management within a mid-size water utility to quantify revenue uncertainty and reserve requirements for catastrophic risks.
    om Chesnutt, Ph.D., PStat®, CAP®, President, A & N Technical Services, Inc.
    ichael Hollis, Ph.D., PStat®, Senior Resource Specialist, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California
    ric Akiyoshi, PE, Engineering Manager - Planning and GIS, Irvine Ranch Water District
    hayne Kavanagh, Senior Manager of Research, Government Finance Officers Association
    aureen Hodgins, Research Project Manager, The Water Research Foundation