Title:Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting
With changing trends in water use, there is interest in improving demand forecasting to support utility operations and planning. This webcast highlighted results from the project Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting: Survey, Manual and Research Report. The project investigated the advantages and disadvantages of various approaches to short-term water demand forecasting and provides practical guidance to water utilities in choosing, implementing, and evaluating forecasting methodologies. The project focused on prediction over a time horizon of less than ten years, intended to inform decisions regarding budgeting, revenue planning, rate design, program implementation, and efficient management of system operations.

The webcast focused on utility case studies that were created during the project and discussed in the research report, Improving the Accuracy of Short-Term Water Demand Forecasts (report #4501A). This report offers evaluations of forecasts created by the six participating water utilities or by the researchers to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of various short-term demand forecasting methodologies.

The webcast also discussed the Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Manual (report #4501B) at a high level. This manual is designed to serve as reference material for water utilities that wish to develop short-term consumption forecasts. The manual provides a review of 53 published forecast evaluations; an analysis of 20 years of El Paso Water Utilities’ data, used to demonstrate several alternative estimation and forecasting practices; and a survey of utility forecast practices.
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Thomas Fullerton, Professor and Trade in the Americas Chair Department of Economics and Finance, The University of Texas at El Paso
Adam Walke, Economist UTEP Border Region Modeling Project, The University of Texas at El Paso
David Torres, Senior Economist, El Paso Water
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